The real estate outlook for 2023 is a prediction that many people, including home buyers and sellers, are interested in. Investors, banks, landlords, and tenants closely monitor foreseeable market trends. The answer, predictably, is uncertain, depending on who you ask. If inflation continues, there will be increased mortgage rates. These increases and the scarcity of available properties have already forced many buyers to the sidelines. The Fed may ease banking conditions if inflation falls or a recession occurs. 

The dampening impact of higher mortgage rates on the housing market has been widely anticipated, and property prices seem to have started to fall. Looking forward to 2023, the ESR group expects a 1.5% drop in national housing values. Fannie Mae’s most recent forecast restated its belief that the housing market would force the United States into recession at the start of 2023. Home prices would then decline. 

While Zillow expects house prices to climb in most cities over the next 12 months, it does not anticipate significant growth in the final months of 2022. The pace of decline in US house prices in August was identical to the previous month’s. The Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index (FHFA HPI) indicates single-family home price movement. It evaluates average price changes in repeat sales or refinances on the same properties. This data is derived from a survey of repeat mortgage transactions on single-family residences whose mortgages were acquired or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac between January 1975 and today.

Because of the sample size, the FHFA HPI is a timely and reliable predictor of home price changes at different geographic levels. It contains more information than other housing price indexes. It also gives housing economists a better analytical tool for evaluating changes in mortgage default, prepayment, and housing affordability rates in particular geographic locations. This is the first time the index has decreased for two consecutive months since March 2011. 

While it seems a simplistic metric, Markets change when demand is fulfilled. There is currently an oversupply of properties in some property markets and not enough to offer elsewhere. Although home development has grown in recent years, it remains far behind. As a result, significant housing price declines would need significant drops in buyer demand.

Demand declines mainly due to increasing interest rates or a general economic slowdown. Rising interest rates would need substantially less demand and more supply than we now have. Even if price growth slows this year, a significant drop in house prices seems unlikely. In the United States, home price growth is expected to be “moderate” or modest in 2022 and 2023.